The World is Yet Not Civilized: A Reflection on the Present and Past World Scenarios.
What does it mean to be civilized? How do we measure the progress or decline of civilization? And what are the prospects for the future of civilization in the 21st century? These are some of the questions that have fascinated and perplexed scholars, thinkers, and leaders for centuries.
One way to approach these questions is to look at the present and past world scenarios, and examine how they reflect the degree of civilization or lack thereof. In this blog, I will use a simple and widely used framework to organize the possibilities. This framework, introduced by the Global Scenario Group, divides the future into three broad channels: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions¹. Each channel represents a different mindset or worldview, and embodies different assumptions on the resolution of critical uncertainties and human choices.
Conventional Worlds are governed by today’s dominant forces of globalization: economic interdependence deepens, dominant values spread, and developing regions gradually converge toward rich-country patterns of production and consumption. Barbarization explores the very real risk that Conventional Worlds strategies prove to be inadequate for addressing mounting environmental and social stress, and problems spiral out of control, leading to a general crisis and the erosion of civilized norms. Great Transitions examine worlds that transcend reform to embrace new values and institutions in pursuit of a just, fulfilling, and sustainable civilization.
I will argue that the world is yet not civilized, because it has not solved the problems of war, injustice, corruption, and suppression, which have caused and continue to cause immense suffering, death, and destruction for humans and other living beings. I will also argue that the world can become more civilized, if we, as human beings, choose to act in ways that reflect our highest values, ideals, and aspirations, and work together to create the conditions, institutions, and systems that foster and support the development, progress, and well-being of all people and the planet.
War
War is one of the oldest and most destructive forms of human conflict. It involves the organized use of force and violence by groups of people against each other, usually for political, economic, or ideological reasons. War has caused immense suffering, death, and destruction for millions of people and countless animals and plants. War has also contributed to the depletion of natural resources, the pollution of the environment, and the spread of diseases.
War is not inevitable, nor is it a natural or inherent part of human nature. War is a product of human choices, actions, and institutions. War can be prevented, reduced, or resolved by peaceful means, such as diplomacy, negotiation, mediation, arbitration, or adjudication. War can also be avoided by addressing the root causes of conflict, such as poverty, inequality, oppression, discrimination, or injustice.
The world is yet not civilized because it has not eliminated war, nor has it established a global system of collective security and cooperation that can prevent or resolve conflicts peacefully. The world is yet not civilized because it still relies on the threat or use of force to achieve its interests, rather than on the principles of international law and human rights. The world is yet not civilized because it still spends more on military than on education, health, or development.
Injustice
Injustice is the violation of the rights, dignity, or equality of people or groups of people. Injustice can take many forms, such as discrimination, oppression, exploitation, abuse, torture, or genocide. Injustice can occur at different levels, such as individual, interpersonal, institutional, or structural. Injustice can affect various aspects of human life, such as social, economic, political, or cultural.
Injustice is not natural, nor is it inevitable. Injustice is a product of human actions, policies, or systems that create or maintain unequal or unfair conditions or outcomes for people or groups of people. Injustice can be challenged, resisted, or changed by human actions, movements, or reforms that promote or protect the rights, dignity, or equality of people or groups of people. Injustice can also be prevented or reduced by creating or strengthening the institutions or mechanisms that ensure the rule of law, the accountability of power, and the participation of people.
The world is yet not civilized because it has not eradicated injustice, nor has it established a global system of justice and human rights that can guarantee the respect, protection, and fulfillment of the rights of all people. The world is yet not civilized because it still tolerates or perpetrates injustice, or remains indifferent or complicit to it. The world is yet not civilized because it still allows or enables the exploitation, oppression, or marginalization of people or groups of people based on their race, gender, religion, ethnicity, nationality, or any other characteristic.
Corruption
Corruption is the abuse of entrusted power for private gain. Corruption can occur in various sectors, such as public, private, or non-governmental. Corruption can involve various actors, such as politicians, officials, businesspeople, or civil society. Corruption can affect various processes, such as elections, legislation, administration, or service delivery. Corruption can have various impacts, such as undermining democracy, eroding trust, wasting resources, or compromising development.
Corruption is not inevitable, nor is it acceptable. Corruption is a product of human greed, selfishness, or dishonesty. Corruption can be exposed, prosecuted, or punished by human laws, regulations, or sanctions. Corruption can also be prevented, deterred, or reduced by human values, norms, or codes of conduct that foster integrity, transparency, or accountability. Corruption can also be combated by strengthening the institutions or mechanisms that monitor, audit, or investigate the use of power or resources.
The world is yet not civilized because it has not eliminated corruption, nor has it established a global system of integrity and accountability that can ensure the proper and ethical use of power or resources. The world is yet not civilized because it still suffers or benefits from corruption, or ignores or denies it. The world is yet not civilized because it still allows or encourages the abuse of power or resources for private gain, at the expense of the public good or the common interest.
Suppression
Suppression is the act of preventing, limiting, or stopping the expression, action, or development of people or groups of people. Suppression can take many forms, such as censorship, repression, coercion, or intimidation. Suppression can target various domains, such as speech, media, art, culture, education, or religion. Suppression can have various motives, such as fear, hatred, or control.
Suppression is not justified, nor is it effective. Suppression is a product of human insecurity, intolerance, or arrogance. Suppression can be challenged, resisted, or overcome by human courage, solidarity, or creativity. Suppression can also be prevented or reduced by human rights, freedoms, or diversity that respect, protect, or celebrate the expression, action, or development of people or groups of people. Suppression can also be countered by strengthening the institutions or mechanisms that safeguard, support, or facilitate the exercise of rights or freedoms.
The world is yet not civilized because it has not ended suppression, nor has it established a global system of freedom and diversity that can enable the expression, action, or development of all people. The world is yet not civilized because it still practices or tolerates suppression, or remains silent or passive to it. The world is yet not civilized because it still prevents, limits, or stops the expression, action, or development of people or groups of people based on their views, beliefs, or identities.
